"> CIMPA 2015 Ecole CIMPA

Probabilistic Models in Epidemiology
December 5 – 16, 2015
Ziguinchor, Senegal
The goal of this Research School is to present various probabilistic models for the spread of infectious diseases, which is clearly one of the major problems that Africa has to face in the coming years.

As Sir Ronald Ross wrote in 1911, « epidemiology must be considered mathematically ». Mathematical epidemiology was first based mainly upon deterministic ODE models, corresponding to the study of well established epidemics in large populations.

However, several aspects of epidemic models are inherently random. For example, a probabilistic model is clearly needed to study the probability that a large epidemic occurs after a few infectives have been introduced into a large population. Also models describing the spread of epidemics taking into account the (random) network of social relations have been studied in recent years.

This CIMPA school will review most results (including recent ones) concerning probabilistic models in epidemiology. Also statistical methods for analysis of epidemiological data will be presented

This school is open to students and researchers having a good understanding of probabilistic modeling. Phd students in fundamental or applied probability are particularly welcome, as well as Post-docs and more advanced mathematicians  :
Here is the list of the main series of lectures.
Tom Britton (Stockholm) Stochastic models in the homogeneous mixing case 1.
Etienne Pardoux (Marseille) Stochastic models in the homogeneous mixing case 2.
Lecture 1.
Lecture 2.
Lecture 3.
Lecture 4.
Lecture 5.
Lecture 6.
Lecture 7.
Lecture 8 Large Deviations.
Viet Chi Tran (Lille) Multitype epidemics and epidemics on graphs.
2nd document.
3rd document.
Course 2.
4th document
David Sirl (Nottingham) Epidemics with two levels of mixing
C. Larédo (Jouy en Josas) Approximation of epidemic models by diffusion processes and their statistical inference
Lecture 2 1st Part
Lecture 2 Part 2
Lecture 3 1st Part
Lecture 3 Part 2
Lecture 3 Part3
Lecture 4
Patrick Hoscheit (Jouy en Josas) Statistical programs for epidemiology
In addition, lectures will be given by the participants.
Languages of the school  : English and French. The courses by Tom Britton and D. Sirl will be delivered in English. The language of the other courses will be decided at the start of the school, based upon a discussion with the audience. All written material will be in English. .
Each of the 5 Lecturers will give 5 lectures of one hour each. There will be scientific presentations by some of the participants., and sessions for exercises and answers to questions on the lectures. There will be a few statistical programing sessions.
Most days will be organized as follows :
09:00 – 10:00 Lecture 1
10:30 – 11:30 Lecture 2
11:45 – 12:30 Talk


14:30 – 15:30 Lecture 3
16:00 – 16:45 Talk
17 – 18:30 Exercices on the 3 lectures of the day

Organization of the 5 sets of lectures :
Saturday, December 5 (arrival in the morning) TB + EP
Sunday, Dec 6 TB + EP + TB
Monday, Dec 7 EP + TB + EP
Tuesday, Dec 8 TB + EP
Wednesday, Dec 9 Excursion 1
Thursday, Dec 10 CL + CVT + CL
Friday, Dec 11 CL + CVT + C
Saturday, Dec 12 DS + CL
Sunday, Dec 13 Excursion 2
Monday, Dec 14 CVT + DS + CL
Tuesday, Dec 15 DS + CVT + DS
Wednesday, Dec 16 CVT + DS
TB = Tom Britton, EP = Etienne Pardoux, CL = Catherine Laredo, CVT = Chi Viet Tran, DS = David Sirl.